WITH a year to go to the US presidential election, Hillary Clinton stands out as the clear favourite among UK bettors to secure the Democratic party candidacy and to win the race to The White House.
Matchbook.com punters in the UK have put their money where their opinions are, placing eight times the amount of money on Clinton compared to her nearest competitor Donald Trump.
It is the lay market, or backing candidates to lose, however, that is most revealing. Despite £45,000 being placed on Trump to win the election, the overwhelming consensus amongst Matchbook customers is that he will be unsuccessful, with £800,000 placed on him to lose.
Other candidates who punters are confident of losing the election include Jeb Bush, who 85% have backed to lose, while 94% of bets on Bernie Sanders are also forecasting failure. Faith in Democratic hopeful Ben Carson is even slimmer with 98% of bets placed on Matchbook predicting he won’t make it to The White House.
Early activity in the 2016 presidential election markets by Matchbook’s UK customers shows increased interest from the 2012 campaign, with punters keen to put their money where their opinions lie. A total of £163 million was matched on the 2012 election but with a full year to go before the next US president is chosen the expectation is for this figure to be easily surpassed.
Looking at the Democratic vs Republican winner market, Matchbook punters appear to have more confidence in a Democratic candidate being inaugurated on Capitol Hill in January 2017. 57% back bets have been for the Democrats vs 43% back bets for the Republicans.